XRP Faces Key Support Test: Whale Selling Pressure Continues and Full Analysis of the $3 Lifeline

This article provides an in-depth analysis of XRP's recent price performance, detailing the implied Whale movements behind the exchange inflow data, and analyzing key support and resistance levels in conjunction with technical indicators. It offers cryptocurrency investors a perspective on the long and short sides of the market, predicting potential future price movements and trading opportunities.

[XRP Recent Market Performance]

XRP has struggled to maintain upward momentum over the past month, with a price drop of nearly 10%, significantly underperforming the market. As of the time of writing, XRP is trading at approximately $2.96, while the overall Crypto Assets market shows mixed signals. Notably, while other mainstream assets like Ethereum continue to hit new highs, XRP faces ongoing pullbacks, prompting market participants to closely monitor whether its trend will continue or stabilize in the near term.

[Whale Selling Pressure Data Analysis]

CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA pointed out in the latest analysis report that the current price movement of XRP is a normal adjustment after a strong surge at the beginning of 2025. Previously, XRP had climbed to the range of 3.5-4 dollars, and that wave of increase was accompanied by a significant inflow to exchanges, particularly the movement of funds from large holders, which clearly indicated a profit-taking signal.

Analysts emphasize that this inflow activity may be putting new pressure on token prices, forcing investors to weigh future risks and potential opportunities. Historically, large inflows from significant coin holders often signal the formation of a price cycle peak for XRP. The price breaks above $3 in 2018, the peak close to $1.90 in 2021, and the surge towards $0.90 in 2023 all validate this pattern.

[Key Technical Level Analysis]

(Source: CryptoQuant)

According to the latest data, a similar trend is re-emerging. PelinayPA pointed out: "At the beginning of 2025, XRP rose to the range of $3.5-4 driven by a wave of significant capital inflows, especially in the range of large transactions of 100,000-1 million+ XRP. This indicates significant Whale selling pressure. Currently, the inflow remains unusually high, suggesting continued short-term selling pressure."

Traders are closely monitoring the technical indicators at the same time. A well-known analyst from platform X highlighted the importance of the $2.95 level, which coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. In his analysis, holding this level could pave the way for a rise towards $3.33 and $3.57, while breaking through the $4.6-$5.2 range would allow XRP to enter a new price discovery phase.

[Long and Short Game Scenario Analysis]

The report outlines various scenarios depending on whether XRP can hold the support level near $3.00:

In the short term, continued capital inflows may push the price toward the $2.8 area. If the support level cannot be maintained, it may open up further downside potential, with $2.65 marked as the next key level. This aligns with the cautious sentiment expressed in on-chain data, indicating that XRP is currently at a critical stage, and the upcoming price movement may determine its trajectory for the remainder of the year.

On the other hand, if the $3 threshold can be maintained, analysts believe this could lay the foundation for a new upward attempt, with the resistance level between $4.2 and $4.5 being key to unlocking further gains. In the long term, analysts emphasize that compared to earlier market cycles, XRP is still in a stronger structural uptrend, which leaves the possibility of breaking through new highs above $5 in the second half of 2025.

Institutional Capital Flow Insights

It is worth noting that, despite facing short-term pressure, institutional investors' interest in XRP has not diminished. Several spot ETF applications are still in the approval process, with multiple key decision points expected in October. These regulatory decisions will become important factors influencing the medium to long-term price movement of XRP.

[Trading Strategy Suggestions]

For short-term traders, it is important to closely monitor the defense situation in the support range of 2.95-3.00 USD. If this area is effectively broken, there may be a risk of further correction to 2.65 USD. For medium- to long-term investors, each correction may provide an opportunity to gradually build positions, especially against the backdrop of increasing institutional adoption.

[Conclusion]

XRP is at a critical juncture of technical and fundamental game. The intensified whale activity and growing institutional interest create a delicate balance, with the $3 mark becoming a battleground for both bulls and bears. Investors should remain cautiously optimistic and closely monitor exchange inflow data and ETF approval progress, as these factors will collectively determine the future direction of XRP. Maintaining rationality in a volatile market and strict risk management are essential to seize potential investment opportunities.