XRP Price Prediction and Spot ETF Prospects: Expected to Break Historical High of $3.6606 and Move Towards $5 Target.

This article provides an in-depth analysis of the recent price fluctuations of XRP, with a focus on the market impact of the U.S. SEC's decision to delay the XRP spot ETF application. It also conducts a technical analysis of Bitcoin's trend, exploring key factors such as institutional capital flow and changes in regulatory policies, to provide crypto asset investors with a comprehensive market outlook and trading strategy reference.

[XRP Market Performance Analysis]

XRP has recently faced increasing selling pressure, as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) has delayed its decision on several XRP Spot ETF applications, leading to a temporary lack of price catalysts. Investors are choosing to lock in profits since August, and the absence of XRP Spot ETF may delay the timing for institutional funds to enter the market on a large scale.

[Key Event Interpretation]

Last week, two important events highlighted that the market focus has shifted from the resolved Ripple lawsuit to the Spot XRP ETF. Notably, after the U.S. Court of Appeals approved the joint motion to dismiss, the SEC immediately delayed the approval process for the XRP Spot ETF. Although the SEC dropped its appeal of the ruling on XRP's programmatic sales, which created key preconditions for ETF approval, the standardization framework for Crypto Assets ETFs being developed by regulators has led to delays in the approval timeline.

[Pending ETF Application List]

The currently pending XRP Spot ETF applications include:

• Grayscale XRP Trust (Final Deadline October 18)
• 21Shares Core XRP Trust (October 19)
• Bitwise XRP ETF (October 20)
• Canary XRP Trust (October 24)
• CoinShares XRP Trust (October 25)
• Franklin Templeton XRP ETF (October 25)
• RexShares Rex-Osprey XRP ETF (October 25)
• WisdomTree (October 25)

[The rule revision indicates that the framework will be released soon]

Despite the SEC's continued delay in approving the XRP Spot ETF, the launch of a standardized Crypto Assets ETF framework may be imminent. Following a ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals, several XRP Spot ETF issuers quickly submitted S1 amendments to the SEC. These amendments may be the result of dialogue with the SEC, indicating that the standardized ETF framework is about to be released, potentially triggering a wave of approvals for Crypto Assets Spot ETFs.

[XRP Price Outlook Prediction]

(Source: TradingView)

XRP fell by 5.52% on August 25, closing at $2.8595, underperforming the overall Crypto Assets market (which fell by 4.34%). The short-term price trend depends on several key factors:

• XRP Spot ETF news
• Adoption of XRP as a treasury reserve asset
• Progress on Ripple's US banking license application
• SWIFT related updates
• Legislative Dynamics

Bearish Scenario: If there are legislative setbacks, a weakening of treasury reserve assets, the OCC denies Ripple's banking license application, legislators protect SWIFT, or the SEC rejects the XRP Spot ETF, XRP may drop below the August 3 low of $2.7254, testing the support level of $2.5.

Bullish scenario: If the XRP Spot ETF is approved, the OCC approves bank licenses, Treasury reserve assets increase, bipartisan support for the Clear Act, or SWIFT's share in global remittance business is eroded by Ripple, XRP may break through the historical high of $3.6606 and move towards the $5 target.

[Bitcoin Market Dynamics]

(Source: TradingView)

Bitcoin has simultaneously broken through the key support level of $110,000 for the first time since July 9. Whale activity and the outflow of BTC Spot ETF funds are putting pressure on demand. Last Sunday, a whale sold 24,000 BTC (worth over $2.7 billion), along with a net outflow of $1.18 billion from BTC Spot ETF, which severely impacted the supply-demand balance.

[Institutional Holdings Situation]

Despite the price drop, many companies are still increasing their Bitcoin holdings as treasury reserve assets. According to HODL15 Capital data, 14 companies have increased their holdings by 4,330 BTC in the past 7 days, with Metaplanet recently purchasing 103 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 18,991 BTC.

[ETF fund flow changes]

On August 25, the BTC Spot ETF market in the United States may end a continuous 6-day outflow of funds. Excluding BlackRock's IBIT, the total inflow reached $148.3 million. Fidelity's FBTC saw a net inflow of $65.6 million, ARKB had a net inflow of $61.2 million, and BITB recorded a net inflow of $15.2 million.

Market Sentiment Indicator

CryptoQuant Research Director Julio Moreno pointed out: "The bull market score index has now dropped to 40, entering a bearish phase." Since August 21, when the index changed from "bull market cooling" to "neutral" phase, Bitcoin has dropped by 3.6%.

Macroeconomic Influencing Factors

This week's U.S. economic data, including the Consumer Confidence Index, unemployment claims, and personal income and spending reports, will influence the Federal Reserve's policy stance. A surge in the Core PCE Price Index could weaken rate cut expectations and pressure risk assets; conversely, a slowdown in inflation may support a price rebound.

[Trading Strategy Suggestions]

Traders should closely follow the key events below:

• XRP Spot ETF Related Headlines
• Legislative Progress: The Progress of the "Clarity Act"
• US Economic Data: Impact on Expectations for Federal Reserve Policy Shift
• ETF fund flow: crucial for the balance of supply and demand of Bitcoin

[Conclusion]

The current crypto assets market is at a critical turning point, where regulatory decisions and institutional fund flows will become the main driving forces for future price trends. Investors should maintain a cautiously optimistic attitude, closely follow the progress of ETF approvals and changes in macroeconomic indicators, and timely adjust their investment portfolio allocations. There are both risks and opportunities in market fluctuations, and rational analysis and risk control are key to coping with the current market.