"Crypto World Unprotected" Issue 18: 401 Pension Plan Gets on Board, Decoding New Opportunities in the Crypto Market

The eighteenth episode of "No Defense in the Crypto World", co-hosted by Techub News, Wind, Uweb, and Chain Wisdom, features host Qie Ge alongside "Market Circle Coal Boss" principal and founder of the "Coal Boss Crypto Private Board" Dave (Coal Doctor) and RITD Lab co-founder A Shen, bringing a deep dialogue about the hot topics and trends in the crypto market. This episode focuses on the "Long Wick Candle" phenomenon during the bull run, combining insights from the US market to explore market fluctuation logic, investment strategies, and new opportunities in the crypto ecosystem, revealing short-term risks and long-term potential.

Pension Fund Entry and Market Fluctuation: Dr. Coal Analyzes Short-Term Risks and Long-Term Trends

Qie Ge has highlighted the nearly $9 trillion 401 pension plan in the U.S. entering the crypto market, pointing out that it has driven Bitcoin (BTC) to rise over 1.4% during the day and has boosted Ethereum (ETH). Coal Doctor believes that such news stimulates the market in the short term, but the inflow of funds takes time, which belongs to a small cycle benefit. In the long term, the bull run trend is clear, but mid-term risks come from concerns about recession triggered by corrections in U.S. employment data and the "too late" risk of expectations for rate cuts in September (with over 80% probability for a 25 basis point cut). He emphasized that the market leads the news, and BTC has not broken through the fluctuation range, making it difficult to set new highs in the short term. Coal Doctor also mentioned the historical tendency for U.S. stocks and BTC to decline in August and September (affected by summer consumption) and the behavioral finance effects brought by the U.S. "Ghost Festival," predicting that the big bull market may be delayed until late September to October.

Market Strength and Technical Analysis: A's Interpretation of Short-term Trends

Analyst A believes that the recent market is driven by news of Trump incorporating real estate into his investment portfolio and expectations of interest rate cuts. BTC shows a strong upward trend on the four-hour level, with a decline of only 9%-10%, reflecting market resilience. He suggests monitoring whether BTC can hold above the MA60 and MA200 moving averages to determine the continuation of short-term strength, emphasizing the need to closely monitor on-chain data and be wary of fluctuation risks under recession concerns.

ETF Flows and RWA Trends: Qie Ge Analyzes Market Integration

Qie Ge pointed out that the crypto market is being integrated with traditional finance, with ETF capital outflows and institutional dominance driving BTC up to $123,000. He mentioned that crypto companies (like BNB) are seeking to list on Nasdaq, and traditional companies are adopting a "microstrategy model" to reserve BTC and ETH, with the approval of spot ETFs and staking enhancing capital flexibility. However, he cautioned that fluctuations in a bull run should be approached with caution, as BTC has a gap of $112,000 to $114,000 that may need to be filled, urging adherence to the principle of "buy when no one is watching, sell when the crowd is roaring." The difficulty of achieving RWA is high, and while stablecoins are representative, their replicability is limited.

RWA Future Outlook: A-shen is optimistic about national policies and Ethereum staking

A believes that the RWA market size may exceed $10 trillion, and BlackRock's application for ETH spot staking shows that institutions value the security of public chains. The ETH staking rate is about 30%, and if it exceeds 50% (like Solana), it will enhance network security and drive up coin prices. U.S. policies (stablecoin legislation, the Advi legislation) strengthen the dollar and digest U.S. debt, and the synergistic development potential of RWA and ETH is immense, suggesting investors pay attention to this blue ocean market.

On-chain US debt and cautious view on RWA: Coal Doctor talks about opportunities and pseudo-concepts

The Coal Doctor believes that the on-chain integration of US treasury bonds through the stablecoin "double spending" mechanism increases buying pressure, aids in debt conversion, and is beneficial for the US treasury market. However, he warns that most RWA projects are still in the pseudo-concept stage, and their implementation is not as strong as in 2017-2018. In the Chinese context, RWA and stablecoins are more readily accepted due to the "physical" label, leading to heated discussions domestically, but risks of speculation must be cautioned against.

Ethereum Outlook: A's target is 10,000, while Coal Doctor is optimistic in the short term.

Qie Ge mentioned that the liquidity of the ETH mainnet is high, but applications (such as NFTs and DeFi) are decreasing, transaction fees are high, and the use of stablecoins is declining, shifting towards a value storage role. A Shen combines candlestick charts and on-chain data to predict that ETH may reach 10,000 by October next year, suggesting a short-term target of 5,000, emphasizing ETH's core position as the settlement layer of "Finance 3.0". Coal Doctor shared his experience of purchasing ETH for tens of dollars in the early years, believing that its downside resistance is strong, and institutional funds are shifting from BTC to ETH Treasury. In the short term (1-3 years), it is expected to outperform BTC, but in the long term, it is affected by competition from "Ethereum killers", suggesting earning BTC profits with ETH.

The Myth of Hundredfold Coins: Doctor Coal and God A are Cautiously Optimistic

Qie Ge asked whether there are still opportunities for hundredfold or thousandfold public chains in the crypto world. Dr. Mei believes the difficulty has increased: high encryption adoption rate, reduced bonus period, compliant funds flowing to ETFs rather than altcoins, and the surge in coin supply diluting funds, making a full altcoin season difficult to occur. Only sectors like AI, DeFi, and RWA may have periodic opportunities. A Shen agrees that the difficulty of hundredfold coins is high, while tenfold is already considerable. He suggests focusing on BTC, ETH, and their ecosystem, paying attention to opportunities in Hong Kong and US stocks, and emphasizes that interest rate cuts and liquidity may bring several times of increase.

Summary and Outlook: Dynamic Full Position and Risk Management

Summary by A: On-chain data shows that long-term holders have distributed 200,000 coins (progress 26%). At 80%, it may be close to the top. It is recommended to track industry data to strengthen holding beliefs, prioritizing BTC and ETH, and then considering opportunities in the ecosystem, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks.

Coal Doctor summarizes: The bull run is not over, BTC shows gold-like safe-haven properties, and the decline may be smaller than before. It is recommended to use BTC as the base and adopt a dynamic full position strategy: hold BTC for hedging during downturns, and rotate into other coins during upswings, ensuring not to underperform BTC.

Qie Ge's conclusion: The market seems to be consolidating but suddenly spikes. There may be opportunities in RWA and on-chain US stocks, but timing and location are crucial. He encourages following Techub News, downloading the APP to earn points, and attending the Bitcoin Asia Summit. He wishes the audience to manage risks and accumulate wealth.

This issue of "Crypto World Unprotected" explores the dynamics of the bull run, the potential of RWA, and the prospects of public chains from an open perspective, providing rational guidance and forward-looking insights for investors. Looking forward to meeting again next Tuesday and Thursday at 19:30 in UTC+8!