Foresight Ventures Weekly Market Report: The general environment is turbulent, and the general trend will rise

A. Market View

1. Macro liquidity

Currency liquidity has tightened. The resilience of the U.S. economy appears to have strengthened the Fed's resolve to raise interest rates. Powell delivered a hawkish speech, saying that there will be more tightening policies this year, and the possibility of two consecutive interest rate hikes is not ruled out. The sharp retracement of US stocks ended the three-month rise, announcing the end of the current round of rising market. The U.S. SEC has changed its attitude towards cryptocurrency regulation, and the BTC trend is stronger than that of U.S. stocks.

Second, the whole market

Top 100 gainers by market capitalization:

This week the market was volatile and pulled back. BTC rose, copycats fell, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate hit a new low this year. We are seeing early signs of a US-led recovery in demand as institutional ETF applications on Wall Street surge. Market hotspots revolve around BTC and Qiangzhuang coins.

1. BCH: EDX, a cryptocurrency exchange supported by Fidelity Investments, Charles Schwab and Castle Securities, started operations, offering four tokens: BTC, ETH, BCH and LTC, which directly stimulated the surge of BCH.
2. FTT: The FTX exchange has recovered $7 billion in bad debts, and plans to restart it. Several Wall Street tycoons are interested. FTT may have a meme hype opportunity similar to LUNC.
3. OX: The OX exchange is a debt exchange founded by Zhu Su. It has now become the leader of RWA, and has recently launched new functions such as launching platforms and stable coins.

3. BTC market

1) Data on the chain

The currency-tuning party is slowly accumulating. The amount of coins held in the cold wallet hit a record high of 15.2 million, and the balance of the exchange dropped to the lowest level since January 2018 of 2.3 million. About 150,000 BTC flowed into the above-mentioned cold wallet every month, which shows that the hoarding party has been quietly Silent hoarding of coins.

Stablecoins were flat. Recent liquidity data show that in fact, the funds in the market did not continue to enter the market, but showed signs of leaving the market. Insufficient liquidity has become the main reason for restricting the market from continuing to rise.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the index is greater than 6, it is the top interval; when the index is less than 2, it is the bottom interval. MVRV fell below the key level 1, and holders are generally in the red. The current indicator is 0.72, entering the recovery phase.

2) Futures Quotes

Futures funding rate: The rate is neutral this week. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, and the long leverage is more, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate is -0.1-0%, and the short leverage is more, which is the short-term bottom of the market.

Futures open interest: The total BTC open interest remained high this week, and the main funds entered the market. ETH, on the other hand, was relatively flat.

Futures long-short ratio: 1.0. Market sentiment is not apparent. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a reverse indicator, below 0.7 is more panic, and above 2.0 is more greedy. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and the reference significance is weakened.

3) Spot Market

BTC has remained volatile at a high level this week. Both bad and bullish are short-term market conditions. Insufficient funds to enter the market is the reason why the general environment cannot rise at present. If it cannot rise, it will fluctuate sideways, and the decline will explode under certain circumstances, so the general environment is turbulent. The entry of Asian funds in Hong Kong, the participation of Wall Street institutions in the United States, etc., all of which show that the encryption industry is more and more recognized by the mainstream society, so the general trend is bound to rise.

B. Market Data:

1. The total lock-up amount of the public chain

2. TVL ratio of each public chain

The mainstream currency market continued to pick up this week, but the TVL did not show a significant increase. On the contrary, it fell by 0.7 b compared with last week, and the TVL ratio of the ETH chain remained at around 58.6%. This market rise is basically dominated by mainstream old currencies and meme coins, and the rest of the altcoins remain the same, and the increase in lending agreements is more obvious. Affected by the positive market, on the other hand, there may be a greater demand for currency allocation due to rapid changes in the market.

The TVL of all mainstream L 2 public chains has dropped slightly, and the declines of polygon, avalanche, arbitrum, and optimisim are all in the range of 2% -3%.

3. The lock-up amount of each chain agreement

1) ETH lock-up amount

2) BSC lock-up amount

3) Tron Lockup Amount

4) Avalanche Lockup Amount

5) Polygon lock-up amount

6) Arbitrum Lockup Amount

7) Optimism Lockup Amount

4. History of ETH Gas fee

The current on-chain transfer fee is about $1.63, the Uniswap transaction fee is about $14.68, and the Opensea transaction fee is about $5.7. Compared with last week, the gas fee did not fluctuate much, and the overall gas remained at the lowest point. From the perspective of gas consumption, Uniswap occupies the top position.

Five, NFT market data changes

1) NFT-500 Index:

2) NFT market conditions:

3) NFT trading market share:

4) Analysis of NFT buyers:

5）Top 5 collections Volume：

From the perspective of trading volume, the NFT market is still in an absolute bear market atmosphere. Except for a few blue-chip NFT projects, the overall trading volume is extremely sluggish. Azuki fell by more than 45% in a single week, and the overall market value of NFT is still declining.

Blur's trading volume is still in an absolute leading position. Although the old users of NFT transactions have rebounded slightly this week, in the medium and long term, the old users of NFT transactions have dropped significantly. There may be a certain phenomenon of funds returning to speculate in coins. The number of new NFT users in China has also continued to decrease, without any upward trend. The number of small NFT projects in the market is still declining. It may be that the living space in the current market environment has been gradually compressed.

Six, the latest financing situation of the project

About Foresight Ventures

Foresight Ventures bets on the innovation of cryptocurrency in the next few decades. It manages multiple funds: VC fund, secondary active management fund, multi-strategy FOF, special purpose S fund "Foresight Secondary Fund l", with a total asset management scale of more than 4 One hundred million U.S. dollars. Foresight Ventures adheres to the concept of "Unique, Independent, Aggressive, Long-term", and provides extensive support for projects through strong ecological forces. Its team comes from senior personnel from top financial and technology companies including Sequoia China, CICC, Google, Bitmain, etc.