Market Trend Analysis and Key Developments

Policies and Regulations

Trump recently nominated Stephen Miran to serve as a Federal Reserve governor, with a term ending in January 2026. Miran has long supported interest rate cuts and has proposed a series of reforms for the Federal Reserve, including the divestiture of its banking regulatory functions. Although Miran may not be able to participate in the FOMC meeting in mid-September, the market has interpreted this move as a signal of a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy.

In addition, Trump signed an executive order requiring relevant departments to reassess and facilitate the investment of alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies in retirement savings plans like 401(k). Industry experts predict that if crypto assets account for 1% to 10% of the 401(k) plans, it could lead to an influx of $80 billion to $800 billion. Analysts believe that the impact of this initiative is comparable to the approval of spot ETFs, marking Bitcoin's formal entry into mainstream compliant investment channels, which will help reduce market volatility and strengthen its status as a store of value.

Market Dynamics

The price of Bitcoin has surpassed $117,500, but analysis shows that the supply in the range of $110,000 to $116,000 remains relatively light, indicating that the market may need more time to accumulate to form new support. In the short term, the monthly opening price of $115,600 and the resistance level of $117,200 are key observation points. Although about 95% of addresses are in profit, there is significant resistance in the range of $116,000 to $119,000. However, signs such as increased outflows of Bitcoin from exchanges and continued net inflows into large addresses suggest a tightening supply, with the risk-reward structure skewed to the upside.

Ethereum's price has reached a recent high, approaching the psychological barrier of $4,000. Analysts believe this may indicate that the altcoin market is about to experience a significant surge. The ETH/BTC ratio has rebounded about 75% from the May lows, injecting momentum into the entire altcoin sector. Institutional investors have shown strong interest in Ethereum, having cumulatively purchased about 1.6% of the total supply since June.

Industry Development

In the domestic market, multiple Hong Kong stock enterprises are laying out plans for the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), driving related stock prices up. Analysts point out that companies with RWA tokenization capabilities, technical strength in areas such as smart contracts, cross-chain technology, or metaverse applications will have a competitive advantage. These companies can leverage technological innovation to bring traditional assets onto the blockchain, enhancing asset liquidity and optimizing investment portfolios. However, investors should be wary of companies that merely chase trends without substantial technological investment and long-term planning to avoid potential risks.

Market Data

• Bitcoin: $116,954, Year-to-date increase of 24.59%
• Ethereum: $3,944.90, year-to-date increase of 16.98%
• Fear and Greed Index: 74 (Greed)
• Market Share: BTC 60.0%, ETH 12.2%
• 24-hour liquidation data: 115,938 people globally were liquidated, with a total amount of 408 million USD

Future Outlook

• Immutable (IMX), Space and Time (SXT), Ethereum Name Service (ENS) and other projects will unlock tokens in the near future.
• Bitcoin ETF net inflow of $281 million, Ethereum ETF has seen net inflows for 3 consecutive days, totaling $222 million.
• Projects like Pendle, Mantle, and Aerodrome Finance are leading the market.

With institutional investors continuing to enter the market, an improving policy environment, and advancements in technological innovation, the overall cryptocurrency market is exhibiting a positive trend. However, investors should remain vigilant about short-term price fluctuations and potential risks.