Today, the price of Bitcoin is fluctuating sharply around 114,000 USDT, with both bulls and bears fiercely competing. The market is closely following the upcoming trends, whether it will break through the current resistance level to achieve a pump, or if a pullback is needed to build momentum. Let's analyze the current market situation from both the macro environment and Technical Analysis perspectives.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is increasing, with the expected probability reaching 89.1%. The interest rate cut policy may lead to a relative devaluation of the US dollar, prompting funds to flow into high-risk assets. As "digital gold," Bitcoin may benefit from this. At the same time, major institutional investors such as Grayscale and BlackRock have not significantly reduced their holdings recently, indicating that large funds are still observing and may accelerate their entry once the policy becomes clearer.

In terms of regulation, the final decision by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding the Ethereum ETF is about to be announced. If approved, it could drive the sentiment of the entire cryptocurrency market upward, and Bitcoin, as the market leader, is likely to rise accordingly. In addition, the policies regarding cryptocurrency in Asian markets (such as Hong Kong) continue to trend towards looseness, which could stimulate a gradual return of retail funds.

However, we also need to be cautious of the market reaction of "buy the expectation, sell the fact". Whether Bitcoin can stabilize at the resistance level of 115,000 USDT in the short term will be crucial.

From a technical perspective, the 1-hour candlestick chart shows several key price levels:

- resistance level: 115,500 USDT, breaking this level will open up the pump space
- Watershed: 114,600 USDT, the current focus of contention between bulls and bears.
- Support level: 113,000 USDT, falling below this level may weaken the short-term trend.

The moving average system shows that the price is fluctuating around the 30-day moving average, and whether it can stabilize above 114,600 USDT will determine the short-term trend.

In summary, although the macro environment is generally favorable, the market is still at a critical technical position. Investors need to closely follow whether the price can break through the key resistance level, while also being wary of potential pullbacks. In such a highly uncertain market environment, it is advisable for investors to remain vigilant and manage risks effectively.