Analysis of Multiple Factors Contributing to the Recent Rapid Rise of the Sui Ecosystem

Recently, the Sui ecosystem has experienced a significant rise, with its governance token SUI increasing by over 75% in a week, far exceeding the market performance during the same period. This phenomenon is driven by multiple complex factors, including speculation driven by market rumors, significant changes in capital flows, and ongoing improvements in the ecosystem's fundamentals. This article will deeply analyze the capital movements behind this round of SUI's rise, key catalysts, on-chain data performance, and potential risks, providing a comprehensive interpretation of the logic behind this ecological frenzy.

Capital Flow Analysis

From the on-chain capital flow in recent months, the changes in Sui are not significant. Over a three-month period, Sui has shown a net outflow of 32 million USD, which is relatively small. The on-chain capital flow changes in the past month and the past week are even more negligible, and it has not even made it into the top twenty in the public chain rankings.

However, the capital flow of the exchange shows a significant influx into the Sui ecosystem. Data indicates that in the past seven days, the spot capital inflow of SUI reached 62.86 million USD, ranking fourth among all cryptocurrencies. In terms of contract capital inflow, tokens from the Sui network ecosystem such as WAL, MEMEFI, and CETUS have also entered the top ten, reflecting the rising activity of the Sui ecosystem.

The contract holdings of SUI tokens have risen significantly since April 21, increasing from 700 million to 1.419 billion within a week, approaching the historical high of 1.5 billion. Most tokens in the Sui ecosystem also experienced substantial increases within the week, with 20% of tokens rising over 100% and 37.5% of tokens rising over 50%.

Market Sentiment Drivers

On April 21, mainstream tokens began to rebound synchronously, and Sui's rise was also initiated. Subsequently, several positive news items emerged, but it is difficult to determine whether these news are the true driving force behind the rise or strategically released in conjunction with the price increase.

The main positive news includes:

1. Pokémon collaboration rumors: Originating from the update of the privacy policy of the Pokémon HOME application, which lists Sui-related companies as authorized developers.

2. xMoney/xPortal Cooperation: Announced the launch of the Sui brand virtual Mastercard in Europe.

3. ETF-related news: The earlier establishment of the "SUI ETF" statutory trust entity by 21Shares has been re-examined.

4. Other developments: including collaboration with the Athens Stock Exchange, Nautilus launching privacy solutions, etc.

These advancements cover multiple areas such as Web3 gaming, privacy, and development environments, forming an overall favorable situation.

DEX trading volume rise

Since April, the DEX trading volume on the Sui network has remained high, especially with a historical peak of $998 million reached on March 29. The leading DEX in the ecosystem, Cetus Protocol, has driven the overall rise, with a trading volume increase of 84.5% in the past week.

Another important contributor is Kriya, which contributed a trading volume of $780 million on March 29. The surge in trading volume may be related to the airdrop of Walrus, which saw a trading volume of $380 million on the day of its airdrop release on March 27.

Developer Activity

The Github code submission frequency of the Sui network has significantly increased since December 2024, maintaining over 500 submissions per week, far exceeding the levels of Solana and Aptos. This reflects an increase in the activity of the developer community.

Potential Risks

1. Token unlocking pressure: SUI unlocks tens of millions of tokens every week, which may become an unstable factor during the rise cycle.

2. Unbalanced ecological structure: Currently, the rise is mainly led by DEX and infrastructure projects, while application and game projects are not performing prominently.

3. Lack of "hit" applications: Although multiple themed ecosystems have been built, there is still a lack of popular applications that can attract a large user base.

Conclusion

The recent rise of the Sui ecosystem is the result of the combined effects of market speculation enthusiasm, influx of capital, expectations in the contract market, and fundamental progress. However, while focusing on price performance, one must also be wary of the ongoing token unlock pressure and pay attention to whether the application ecosystem can further thrive. The ability to create truly popular applications that attract users will be key to determining whether Sui can convert its current heat into long-term value.