FOMC maintains interest rate, with an unusual 2 dissenting votes. Chairman Powell indicates a cautious stance on rate cuts, citing "high uncertainty" | Macro Theme Analysis | Moneyクリ マネックス証券's investment information and media helpful for money.

Differences in opinions regarding interest rate cuts have emerged within the FOMC

On July 30, the US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee, equivalent to Japan's monetary policy decision meeting) was held, and the policy interest rate was kept unchanged as the market had expected.

However, this time, it was an unusual development where two board members cast votes against the status quo. This is the first time in 32 years since 1993, and it has brought to light the conflicting opinions regarding interest rate cuts within the FOMC. Additionally, one board member was absent from this meeting.

In the statement, the phrase "sustained strength of economic activity" that had been included previously was removed, and the expression "uncertainty in economic activity outlook has decreased" was also omitted. Instead, it was noted that "growth in the first half of the year is moderate," indicating a slight downward revision in the overall economic outlook.

Fed Chair Powell shows some consideration but is cautious about interest rate cuts.

In the press conference of the spotlighted Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve (FRB), he reiterated the view that the current policy interest rate is at a "appropriate level" and stated that "there are many uncertainties that need to be resolved," showing a cautious stance towards interest rate cuts. This is based on the judgment that it is necessary to assess the impact of tariff policies and inflation trends.

While indicating a recognition of a "somewhat tightening" policy stance, they still maintain a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts. However, they also mentioned that "delaying rate cuts could potentially have a negative impact on employment," suggesting a degree of consideration.

What will happen with the interest rate cut in September? There is pressure for a rate cut from the government side as well.

No decisions have been made regarding the September meeting, and they avoided delving into the possibility of interest rate cuts. They explicitly state that they have not yet reached the recognition that the FOMC will soon proceed with interest rate cuts. In the market, the pricing in of a rate cut in September remains at about half, and opinions in the market regarding the direction of policy are also divided.

Pressure from the government side to lower interest rates continues, but Chairman Powell emphasizes that monetary policy will be determined based on economic data, as has traditionally been the case. The real GDP growth rate for the April to June quarter of 2025, announced on July 31, shows a solid year-on-year increase of 3.0%, and the overall resilience of the economy remains a point of focus.

In the future, the development of tariff policies and how their effects are reflected in economic indicators will be the focus. In particular, whether the transitory nature of inflation and the slowdown in employment, pointed out by the board members who voted against, will actually be confirmed will be an important factor and a turning point in future policy decisions.