2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT Jul-25

The crypto index NWST1100 posted a marginal gain of just +0.15% last week. Coins represented by the NWSCo100 index have outperformed other segments, surging by 17.83% in the previous thirty days.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is complex to read initially, but it effectively displays essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. Monitoring Market Sentiment and Breadth is necessary to detect early signs of trend reversals or continued strength.

After conducting a detailed examination of the NWST1100 chart, a vital metric for the cryptocurrency market, reveals several essential market dynamics and changes in market sentiment:

The NWST1100: Following a parabolic surge in early July, the NWST1100 posted a marginal gain of just +0.15% last week, indicating a cooling phase and possible consolidation. After an aggressive altcoin-led breakout, momentum has decelerated, with price action flattening, a typical post-extension digestion pattern. While Ethereum (ETHUSD) remains the standout performer with a 59% gain over the past month, the intensity of the catch-up rally has tapered. Altcoin indices, such as NWSCo100 and NWSET100, continued to lead, while Bitcoin and hybrid indices, like NWSBE, lagged, confirming that a structural capital rotation toward altcoins and the Ethereum ecosystem is ongoing.

Market Sentiment (PPO & RSI): Momentum indicators now reflect this slowdown. The PPO histogram has declined to the zero line, and the PPO itself has turned downward, signaling a loss of upward momentum. Meanwhile, the RSI remains elevated at 71, firmly in overbought territory. While this confirms the underlying trend’s strength, it also points to growing exhaustion and an increased potential for a short-term pullback.

Crypto Market Breadth indicators at the bottom of the chart, while still positive, showed signs of saturation. The Advance-Decline Line (ADL) and the McClellan Summation Index rose modestly, but both indicators stalled midweek before resuming their advance at a much slower pace by week’s end. This suggests continued participation in the rally, but with waning intensity — a typical hallmark of a maturing impulse move.

In summary, the crypto market has entered a constructive consolidation phase following its most powerful rally in months. Breadth remains supportive but stretched, and momentum is fading. The structural rotation into altcoins is still intact, but caution is warranted as the index approaches critical resistance levels, where profit-taking or mean reversion could emerge.

According to the chart on the right, A50R indicators across all four market segments (NWST1100, NWSET100, NWSL100, NWSCo100)reveal the structural rotation that has unfolded into altcoins and the Ethereum ecosystem:

• Approximately 90% of all coins in the NWSCo100 index, as well as 90% of large-cap assets in the NWSL100 index, are currently trading above their 50-day EMA.
• The same applies to tokens in the NWSET100 index, signaling broadly confirmed strength across the Ethereum-based segment.
• Even in the total market index NWST1100, more than 75% of the 1100 most significant digital assets are trading above their 50-day moving average. However, this robust participation among major segments also exposes the underperformance of mid-, small-, and micro-cap assets, which have not mirrored the same strength. This confirms that the rally is not a uniform “risk-on” surge, but rather a selective, structural reallocation into established, fundamentally stronger projects — likely driven by regulatory clarity and a reduction in perceived risk.

This breadth indicator measures the percentage of digital assets trading above a 50-day moving average

* The percentage of digital assets trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The chart on the right side compares the percentage of DA trading above the 50-day EMA for:

1. 100 Large-caps members of NWSL100 (top box)
2. 1100 members of NWST1100
3. 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100
4. 100 Coins members of NWSCo100 (bottom box)

Outlook for this week

This report examines the cryptocurrency market’s short-term outlook, identifying patterns and signals that may offer insights into potential market direction. While predicting market behavior is inherently uncertain, discernible trends in momentum and market breadth indicators suggest possible developments.

1. The PPO histogram, which reflects the rhythm and rate of change in market momentum, dipped below the zero line last week — reflecting both the fading of bullish drive and a sharp intraday test of support. However, the subsequent rebound suggests that this negative phase may be short-lived, echoing similar patterns observed in May and November, when continued advances followed brief dips in the histogram. This setup implies that PPO lines could maintain an upward trajectory for a limited time, potentially extending bullish momentum through the end of July. That said, the cycle is in a mature phase, and upside potential appears increasingly constrained. Traders should monitor for signs of exhaustion, as a shift toward a pullback or range-bound movement may be imminent.
2. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently at 71, firmly in overbought territory, yet still climbing with an upward slope. These elevated levels confirm broad-based strength and trend continuation for now, but also warn of potential exhaustion if no new catalysts emerge.
3. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100): ADVL and the McClellan Summation Index on the chart below resumed their ascent by the end of the week after stalling midweek. However, their reduced pace of advance and flattening trajectory suggest the market is approaching a potential inflection point, where the broad-based rally could begin to narrow or slow further.

In conclusion, following the explosive altcoin-driven breakout, the market has entered a cooling phase. Momentum is fading, and participation, while still supportive, is showing early signs of saturation. The more probable scenario over the coming days is a volatile sideways range between key resistance and support zones The NWST1100 index may attempt to retest resistance between 8,600 and 9,040 (Point & Figure target and Pivot R1). However, under current stretched conditions, a clean breakout appears unlikely. If resistance holds — as is statistically probable — a sharp retracement toward the 8,000 area is expected. This zone aligns with both the 25-day EMA and Pivot P, offering a likely short-term technical floor Instead of anticipating strong directional continuation, traders should brace for whipsaw price action, elevated volatility, and fading momentum — particularly during tests of both resistance and support extremes.

📍 Key levels to watch:

Resistance: 8600 (Point & Figure chart, bullish price objective), 8,800 (previous highs from December), 9040 Pivot R1

Support: 7,920 (Pivot P)

Performance of different groups of Digital Assets (Coins and Tokens)

Investors and traders often rely on historical performance data to make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency holdings. After analyzing the data in the table, it can be seen that the crypto market stalled, and the overall index has marginally increased by 0.15% over the last week. The chart above highlights the performance of various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, and the 2100NEWS Indices, which represent the performance of Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), large caps (NWSL100), and Coins (NWSCo100). Among these, Ether stood out, significantly outperforming other segments with a remarkable 59.00% gain over the past thirty days.

While the broader market has flattened, different segments and individual cryptocurrencies exhibit different performance dynamics.

Performance Trends by Market Segment:

✔ Ether, NWSET100 (Ethereum-based tokens), NWSCo100 (Coins), and NWSL100 (Large Caps) led the market**,**

✔ NWSBE, Bitcoin, and NWS30 lagged, underperforming relative to the broader rally.

Investors and traders might use this information to adjust their portfolios, possibly shifting focus toward assets with stronger relative momentum while being cautious about those in the Weakening quadrant.

*RRG® charts show the relative strength and momentum of groups of digital assets. Those with strong relative strength and momentum appear in the green Leading quadrant. As relative momentum fades, they typically move into the yellow Weakening quadrant. If relative strength then fades, they move into the red Lagging quadrant. Finally, when momentum picks up again, they shift into the blue Improving quadrant.

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

This report offers a comprehensive analysis comparing the performance of digital assets, as signified by the NWST1100 index, to shares on global capital markets, as represented by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. The comparison spans various timeframes, providing insights into both historical and recent performances, as well as potential future trends.

Let’s break down the key observations and implications:

• Historical Performance Comparison:
  • 44 Months Ago: Digital assets showcased a notable outperformance against shares in global capital markets, reaching a record high in the comparative quotient between the NWST1100 and W1Dow indexes. At this juncture, digital assets displayed a notably superior performance trajectory compared to shares on global capital markets.
  • Over the past twelve months, digital assets have outperformed equities by 32.9%.
• Mean Reversion Opportunity:
  • Over the past 143 working days, the average quotient price, represented by a blue dashed curve, stands at 10.46, while the current spot ratio is 11.92. This is higher than the long-term mean of 8.34, which has increased since October.
  • The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices tend to revert to their historical average returns over time. The current average quotient price above the long-run mean could imply that digital assets are still trading at a relative premium to historical trends.
• Returns Comparison:
  • The chart also presents the returns achieved by the simplified index-based accumulation approach—buying one index point per day over 12 months—to simulate a mechanical exposure build-up. While this method is not equivalent to classical dollar-cost averaging (which involves investing a fixed amount of capital daily), it offers a consistent benchmark to compare historical costs and returns. The NWST1100 Crypto Index has risen by 55.06% over the past twelve months. With daily index investments, an investor’s stock price would have resulted in a gain of 31.0% on the current index price, reflecting unprofitable purchases due to high entry prices during a prolonged market uptrend when prices remained above the 143-day moving average for an extended period.
  • The DJW, representing global capital market shares, has risen 17.81% over the past twelve months. However, a strategy involving daily purchases would have resulted in a gain of 10.6%.
• Conclusion:

The recent rally highlights the importance of tracking market swings. Historically, the best opportunities have emerged when sentiment was weakest and prices were below the 143-day EMA. Conversely, when the market rallies strongly and stretches far above the 143-day EMA, as now, it is often prudent to start building cash reserves to take advantage of future pullbacks.

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow