Crypto Assets Market April Monthly Report

Summary

• In April 2025, the U.S. economy shows a pattern of coexistence between slowing inflation and resilience in the labor market. The Federal Reserve faces the challenge of balancing inflation and growth amid prudent policy adjustments. Changes in tariff policies trigger severe fluctuations in the capital markets, with trade frictions and political uncertainty dominating market sentiment. Mid-term risks focus on the June monetary policy meeting and the corporate earnings performance under tariff impacts.

• As of April 26, the total market capitalization of the global Crypto Assets market has rebounded to $3.07 trillion, an increase of 4.17% compared to last month. Bitcoin's market share is 63.3%, while Ethereum's market share is 7.4%. During April, influenced by Bitcoin price fluctuations and changes in tariff policies, the market trading volume experienced significant volatility, peaking at $140.1 billion on April 22, but still below the levels seen during high volatility periods.

• This month, the price of Bitcoin has increased by about 12.8%, with a net inflow of $2.25 billion for Bitcoin ETFs in April. The price of Ethereum has decreased by about 2% since the beginning of the month, with a net outflow of about $13.8 million for ETFs. The stablecoin market shows strong resilience, with an overall inflow of $4.74 billion in April. USDT and USDC have increased their issuance by $3.51 billion and $1.76 billion respectively, while the circulation of USDE has reduced by $500 million.

• Bitcoin is experiencing a tug of war at the key resistance level of $95,000, with technical indicators leaning bullish suggesting a possible surge to $100,000 to $107,000 after a breakout. Ethereum is targeting the $1,830 resistance after breaking the 20-day moving average, and if it holds, it is expected to reach $2,550. Solana may challenge $180 if it maintains above $153.

• Tariff policies have triggered a dramatic shake-up in the encryption market, with Bitcoin briefly dropping below $74,000, but then rebounding. Regulatory agencies have postponed the decision on Ethereum ETF staking, with some institutional ETF approvals delayed until June. A certain company is transitioning to a "Solana-style reserve strategy": securing $100 million in funding to lay out SOL, but the market still holds differing views on the high volatility of SOL as a core reserve.

• Bitcoin's positioning in the game: attributes of gold or tech stocks, its correlation with gold has reached a two-year high, but high volatility still highlights its dual attributes, and the market's recognition of its role has entered a critical reshaping period. Ethereum's upgrade focuses on improving staking efficiency and the implementation of smart accounts. Major exchanges are promoting the tokenization of US stocks, but compliance and technical bottlenecks still limit liquidity, with early-stage potential and risks coexisting in the track.

1. Macroscopic Perspective

In April 2025, the macroeconomic landscape in the United States is significantly influenced by large-scale tariff policies, further exacerbating the complexity of the existing economic environment. These measures have altered trade patterns, impacted global supply chains, and introduced new uncertainties for businesses and markets. Policymakers are navigating a more complex environment, seeking a balance between controlling inflation and supporting growth objectives. The overall economic outlook appears more cautious, with no immediate systemic risks currently in sight.

inflation situation

Inflationary pressures continue to ease. In March, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase fell to 2.4%, down from 2.8% in February. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by only 0.1% month-on-month. Energy prices decreased by 2.4% in March, with gasoline prices dropping by 6.3%, significantly contributing to the overall easing of inflation.

Labor Market

The labor market continues to show strong resilience. In March, non-farm payrolls increased by 228,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 137,000 and also higher than February's 117,000. However, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, up from 4.1% previously. Although job growth remains robust, the rise in the unemployment rate suggests potential signs of weakness in the labor market.

monetary policy

The latest minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) indicate that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of balance sheet reduction starting in April, reflecting concerns about reserve adequacy and financial stability. In the context of rising uncertainty, the Federal Reserve continues to adhere to a data-driven policy path, carefully weighing the dual objectives of controlling inflation and supporting economic growth.

Capital Market

Since April, the U.S. stock market has experienced significant volatility. On April 21, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged nearly 1,000 points, marking the worst performance in April since 1932. This market decline was primarily driven by escalating tariff policies and concerns over the threatened independence of the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices also recorded substantial declines. Although there was a brief rebound following news of potential trade negotiations, overall market sentiment remains weak, with investors generally seeking safe-haven assets to hedge against ongoing uncertainty.

Trade Policy and Economic Outlook

Since the announcement of extensive tariff measures on April 2, trade tensions have rapidly escalated, particularly intensifying the US-China trade friction. These changes have disrupted global market sentiment and exacerbated volatility in financial markets. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) subsequently downgraded its forecast for US economic growth in 2025 to 1.8%, citing the negative impact of the tariff measures and rising policy uncertainty. Analysts warn that the full economic impact of these policies has yet to be fully reflected in current data, but they pose significant risks to the medium-term outlook.

Summary

In April 2025, the U.S. economy exhibited a composite characteristic of easing inflation and a resilient labor market. However, escalating trade tensions and political instability significantly increased market volatility, casting a shadow over the economic outlook. The policy space faced by the Federal Reserve is increasingly narrowing: aggressive rate cuts could reignite inflation, while maintaining the status quo could exacerbate consumer pessimism and suppress growth. Against the backdrop of tariff impacts not yet fully realized and a contraction in global trade expectations, the market needs to prepare for sustained high volatility, particularly focusing on the June monetary policy meeting and the second quarter corporate earnings affected by tariffs.

2. Crypto Assets Market Overview

trading volume and daily growth rate

According to statistics from the data platform, as of April 26, the average daily trading volume was $102.9 billion, a decrease of 13% compared to the previous period. On April 7 and April 9, influenced by BTC's drop to $74,000, bottom-fishing sentiment increased, leading to a sharp rise in trading volume. On April 22, with the end of the tariff standoff, trading volume rebounded to $140.1 billion, but it was still significantly lower than the levels during high volatility.

Total Market Capitalization and Daily Growth

According to data platform statistics, as of April 26, the total market value of Crypto Assets has rebounded to $3.07 trillion, up 4.17% from last month. Among them, BTC's market share is 63.3%, and ETH's market share is 7.4%, remaining at a low level. From April 22 to 26, the total market value rebounded from $2.83 trillion to $3.07 trillion, with a cumulative increase of about 8.6%, and market sentiment has shifted to a cautiously bullish outlook.

New Popular Tokens Launching in April

Among the popular tokens launched in April, the main ones are those supported by venture capital, including DeFi staking projects such as BABY and STO, as well as infrastructure projects like INIT, WCT, and HYPER.

3. On-chain Data Analysis

Analysis of BTC and ETH ETF inflow and outflow situation

In April, BTC ETF inflows reached $2.25 billion. At the beginning of April, tariff policies caused severe fluctuations in the Crypto Assets market, but after the announcement of a temporary suspension of the tariff policies at the end of April, BTC prices experienced a significant rebound. As of April 25, the BTC price increased from $82,551 at the beginning of the month to $94,714, representing an increase of approximately 12.8%.

In April, ETH ETF outflows amounted to 13.8 million USD. In April, the price of Ethereum continued to decline due to the impact of tariff policies. As of the 25th of the month, the price of ETH dropped from 1823 USD at the beginning of the month to 1786 USD, a decrease of as much as 2%.

Analysis of Stablecoin Inflows and Outflows ###

In April, the inflow of stablecoins was approximately $4.74 billion, primarily from USDT and USDC. Despite tariff policies causing significant fluctuations in the Crypto Assets market, the stablecoin market continued to show strong growth momentum. Among them, USDT and USDC became the main drivers of growth this month, with circulation increasing by approximately $3.51 billion and $1.76 billion, respectively, occupying an important share of the stablecoin market expansion. In contrast, USDE's circulation volume decreased, with a reduction of $500 million.

4. Price Analysis of Mainstream Coins

Analysis of BTC price changes ###

On April 23, Bitcoin formed a doji candlestick, indicating hesitation from both bulls and bears near the key resistance level of $95,000. The 20-day exponential moving average has started to rise, and the relative strength index is approaching the overbought zone, suggesting that the current price trend is more likely to move upwards.

If the buyer can maintain momentum and hold the position, after breaking through $95,000, the BTC/USDT pair may rise further to $100,000 or even $107,000. However, if the price significantly falls back from $95,000 and breaches the moving average support, this bullish outlook will be invalidated.

ETH price change analysis

Ethereum rebounded strongly on April 22, breaking through the 20-day EMA ($1,676). Next, buyers will attempt to push the price above the 50-day simple moving average ($1,830). If successful, the ETH/USDT pair is expected to rebound to $2,111; if the bulls continue to dominate, the price could rise to $2,550, indicating that the correction phase may have ended.

On the contrary, if the price encounters strong resistance at $2,111 and quickly falls back, it indicates that the bears are still active at high levels, and ETH may maintain a range-bound consolidation between $2,111 and $1,368.

Analysis of SOL price changes

Solana rebounded from the 20-day EMA ($133) on April 22 and attempted to break above the resistance level of $153 on April 23. The EMA is rising, and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that the bulls have the upper hand. If the price successfully closes above $153, it is expected to rise to $180, thereby reactivating the wide range of $110 to $260.

The bears need to act quickly. If they cannot hold the current price level and let the price break below the moving average support, the SOL/USDT pair may fall back to the support area of $120 to $110.

5. Hot Events of This Month

1. Tariff policies cause fluctuations in the Crypto Assets market.

On April 2, 2025, the United States announced a "minimum benchmark tariff" of 10% on all trading partners and implemented higher "reciprocal tariffs" on 60 countries, causing severe fluctuations in the global financial markets. On April 9, the US-China tariff war escalated further, with US tariffs on China soaring to 145%, while China retaliated with tariffs ranging from 84% to 125% on US goods. This led to a significant decline in global stock markets, with the S&P 500 index dropping more than 10% in two days, marking the largest decline since the pandemic began in 2020. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price temporarily fell to $74,627. On April 10, it was announced that tariffs on 75 countries would be suspended for 90 days, but the high tariff rates of 125%-145% on China would remain. On April 22, the tone shifted, stating that "tariffs on China would be significantly reduced", with the US Treasury Secretary acknowledging that high tariffs were unsustainable, suggesting a potential restart of negotiations between the US and China. Subsequently, the crypto market responded positively, with Bitcoin's price reaching $93,948 and Ethereum hitting $1,818, both achieving their highest points since March.

2. Regulatory agencies delay