Analysis of the Blob Market After the Ethereum Pectra Upgrade

On May 7, 2025, Ethereum completed the Pectra upgrade, which mainly included an increase in the target and maximum blob count per block. This upgrade has multiple effects on the blob market, rollups, Ethereum validators, and ETH supply.

Blob Market Changes

After the Pectra upgrade, the number of blobs purchased daily through rollup increased from about 21,200 to 25,600, and the average daily data capacity rose from 2.7GB to 3.3GB. However, the actual usage is still less than two-thirds of the new target value.

Due to insufficient usage, blob prices have plummeted. After the upgrade, the median price for each blob is only $0.00000000035, and the blob fees paid by rollup daily are less than 0.01 cents, far below the average daily cost of $16,250 before the upgrade.

Impact on Ethereum Nodes

Although the rollup has purchased more blobs, the usage ratio relative to the total capacity has actually decreased. The current average daily purchase amount is 40% of the maximum capacity and 61% of the target capacity.

The amount of rollup data that nodes need to store has increased. After Pectra, the amount of data that nodes need to retain has reached a historical high of 44.6GB. If the demand for blobs continues to grow, this value could rise to 60GB; if it reaches the target usage rate, it may even require storing 95GB to 100GB of data.

Rollup Cost and ETH Burn

After the launch of Pectra, the average daily spending on blob-related costs for rollups decreased from $20,660 to $11,015, a drop of 51%. However, due to the more than 650% increase in Ethereum L1 fees, the actual reduction in costs is somewhat limited.

The amount of ETH burned through blob activities has significantly decreased. The average daily burn was 11.22 ETH before the upgrade, which has dropped to 3.26 ETH after the upgrade, a decrease of 71%. Of this, 99.99% comes from the execution layer base fee.

Impact on Layer 2

The profit margins of most rollups have improved. The 7-day moving average profit margins of Linea and Base reached 98.86% and 98.54%, respectively. Blast saw the most significant improvement in profit margins, rising from over 50% to above 80%.

The net income of rollups has also increased. The income and net earnings of each rollup have at least doubled, with Base performing the best, generating $1.22 million in revenue and a net profit of $1.12 million.

Summary

The upgrade of Pectra to rollup provides a more favorable economic environment, reduces data availability costs, and increases blob usage. However, this also brings greater data storage pressure on node operators. As Ethereum continues to expand its blob data availability, how to balance the demands for scalability with node operating costs will become an important issue.