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AI Weekly Hotspot Report (07.04 - 07.11)
Directory:
1. Market Trends
1.1. Market Sentiment
This week, the total market value of cryptocurrencies reached $3.26 trillion, an increase of 22.1% compared to the previous period. The exchange trading volume increased by 8.8%, reaching $98.21 billion. Bitcoin continues to rise, increasing by 2.67% this week, breaking through $107,000. Overall, market sentiment is optimistic, with the dominant trend being upward.
According to Gate's Fear and Greed Index, today's market sentiment is "Greed," with a Fear and Greed Index of 71. Overall, the market sentiment is relatively optimistic, and investors exhibit a certain degree of greed.
1.2. Macroeconomic Impact
Recent data shows that the pace of global economic recovery is slowing, and inflationary pressures continue. The Eurozone's CPI in June rose by 2.5% year-on-year, higher than the expected 2.3%, reaching a new high since 2012. The CPI in the United States in May rose by 4.0% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.8%, marking the highest level since 2008. Against the backdrop of intensifying inflationary pressures, expectations for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have risen. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will raise rates twice before the end of this year, with the median interest rate potentially increasing to 1.75%.
Inflationary pressures on the production side are also continuing to rise. The Eurozone's PPI in May increased by 7.6% year-on-year, reaching a record high. The US PPI in May rose by 6.6% year-on-year, higher than the expected 6.3%. The continued rise in upstream prices will further push up consumer-side inflation.
The momentum of economic recovery is slowing down. The preliminary manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone in June was 59.4, down from the previous value of 63.1, marking an 8-month low. The ISM manufacturing index for the U.S. in May was 61.2, down from the previous value of 62.5. The slowdown in economic activity may exacerbate inflationary pressures.
Overall, the persistent rise in inflationary pressures and the slowdown in economic recovery will intensify the pressure for global monetary policy tightening. This will put pressure on risk assets, and the cryptocurrency market will also find it difficult to escape.
1.3 Financial Calendar
This week's important economic data focuses on the United States, including CPI, retail sales, etc. These data will affect the monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve. In addition, the CPI of the Eurozone, UK employment data, and other factors are also worth paying attention to. Overall, the economic data released this week will provide important references for the monetary policy decisions of central banks in various countries. Investors need to closely monitor changes in this data to grasp market trends.
2. Capital Flow and Price Volatility Analysis
2.1. Price Volatility Analysis
BTC Volatility Based on the daily closing prices of BTC over the past week, the weekly volatility of BTC is approximately 2.35%.
Price Fluctuation and Reasons This week, the BTC price showed a trend of initially declining and then rising. At the beginning of the week, the BTC price hovered around $108,000, and after breaking through the $110,000 mark in the middle of the week, it continued to rise, surpassing $112,000 on Thursday to set a new all-time high. The price increase was mainly driven by the entry of institutional investors and an increase in demand from U.S. investors.
Impact of Trading Volume Changes Trading volume is an important indicator of market activity. This week, the average daily trading volume of BTC is approximately 15 million coins, which is a significant increase compared to last week. The increase in trading activity is conducive to a broader price volatility, thereby providing more trading opportunities for both bulls and bears.
Market Activity and Potential Price Direction From a technical perspective, the BTC price is currently operating within an ascending channel, with momentum for further upward movement in the short term. However, one should also be wary of the risk of profit-taking. Overall, the continuous inflow of institutional funds will support the upward trend of BTC prices.
2.2. Capital Market Analysis
According to the latest capital flow data, we can see that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have continuously shown a net inflow over the past week. This indicates that the market demand for these two major cryptocurrencies remains strong. Specifically, the net inflow for BTC reached $577 million on July 11, 2025, while the net inflow for ETH was $234 million.
At the same time, some emerging cryptocurrencies such as MAGIC, RESOLV, NEAR, etc. have also seen significant net inflows of funds. This indicates that investors are actively seeking new investment opportunities, and market activity is relatively high. However, we should also note that tokens like VIRTUAL have experienced net outflows in the past week, reflecting investors' wait-and-see sentiment towards certain tokens.
Overall, the funding situation in the cryptocurrency market remains relatively active. The inflow of funds from institutional investors is worth paying attention to, as their entry often guides the direction of the entire market. Looking ahead, if there continues to be a net inflow of funds into major cryptocurrencies, it will be beneficial for further price increases.
2.3. Smart Money Analysis
The flow of smart money often indicates the market trend. By analyzing the changes in large order transaction volumes, we can gain insight into the movements of institutional investors.
BTC Large Order Analysis In recent weeks, the trading volume of large BTC orders has shown a downward trend, indicating that institutional investors are gradually withdrawing. This may mean that BTC will face significant selling pressure in the short term.
ETH Large Order Analysis Unlike BTC, the trading volume of large ETH orders has recently increased, indicating that institutional investors are adding to their ETH positions. This could provide more support for ETH.
Other Currency Analysis In addition to BTC and ETH, the trading volume of large orders for other mainstream cryptocurrencies such as XRP and LTC has also increased, reflecting that institutional investors are diversifying their portfolios.
Overall, institutional investors are currently cautious about BTC, while they are more optimistic about ETH and other mainstream cryptocurrencies. This may indicate that the crypto market will show a diverging trend in the short term.
3. Hot Topics
🔥 Sui ecosystem explosion, Momentum TGE ignites coin price!
🌟 The Sui ecosystem continues to heat up, and Momentum has become a rising star.
In the past week, the Sui ecosystem project Momentum is about to hold its TGE (Token Generation Event), which has become the focus of the crypto community. Momentum is a decentralized exchange built on the Sui network, and its TGE event is expected to start on July 15.
According to official news from Momentum, there will be 100 million MNTM tokens issued during the TGE period, accounting for 10% of the total supply. This significant event has attracted great attention from investors, and the Sui ecosystem is continuing to heat up.
Data shows that the price of Sui increased by 12.19% this week, reaching $3.44. The trading volume also saw a significant increase, exceeding $150 million within 24 hours.
💥 The Sui ecosystem is continuously expanding, and Threshold Network has launched tBTC.
In addition to the upcoming TGE of Momentum, the continued development of the Sui ecosystem has also become a hot topic of market interest. Well-known analyst Michael van de Poppe stated that the Sui ecosystem is continuously expanding, as Threshold Network has launched tBTC on Sui, which will further enhance the utility of Sui.
"The Sui ecosystem is rapidly developing, and the Threshold Network has launched tBTC on Sui, which means Bitcoin can now be used on the Sui network. This will undoubtedly enhance the appeal of Sui," van de Poppe said.
Data shows that the number of active addresses and transaction volume on the Sui chain have recently increased, reflecting the growing activity level of the Sui ecosystem.
🚀 The Sui mainnet launch is imminent, and institutional funds are ready to go.
In addition to ecological development, the upcoming launch of the Sui mainnet has also become the focus of market attention. According to the official roadmap, the Sui mainnet is expected to go live in the third quarter of 2023.
Olaf Carlson-Wee, the founder of the well-known investment firm Polychain Capital, stated that the launch of the Sui mainnet will bring a large influx of institutional funds, which could drive a significant increase in the price of Sui.
"Once the Sui mainnet is launched, it will definitely attract a large influx of institutional funds. We have already seen many institutions closely monitoring the development of Sui," said Carlson-Wee.
Overall, the continued warming of the Sui ecosystem and the imminent launch of the mainnet will inject strong momentum into the future development of Sui. Investors also hold an optimistic view of Sui's future prospects.
4. Major Events
The following are the Top 15 events that have significantly impacted the cryptocurrency market in the past seven days:
#1 XRP Price Glitch Causes Panic On July 11, 2025, the price of XRP encountered a malfunction, erroneously displaying as $691,667 per token, causing panic in the market. Although it was quickly corrected, this incident highlighted the vulnerability of crypto data systems, which could lead traders to act based on false signals. Platforms need more transparent price verification mechanisms and fail-safes.
#2 The Federal Reserve Reassesses Tariff Impact On July 11, 2025, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed that most officials support at least two rate cuts in 2025 due to inflation caused by tariffs falling short of expectations. Goldman Sachs expects the first rate cut to occur in September, and Polymarket traders assign a 50% probability to a rate cut in September.
#3 Snoopy Dog NFT Sold Out On July 11, 2025, the latest NFT series launched by rap legend Snoop Dogg on Telegram Gifts sold out in 30 minutes, generating $12 million in revenue. The series includes 996,000 NFTs, divided into five levels.
#4 Deutsche Bank Issues Blockchain Bonds On July 11, 2025, the German state development bank NRW.BANK issued blockchain bonds worth 100 million euros on Polygon, marking one of the largest initiatives in the digital securities sector by the European public sector.
#5 Sun Cut Plan Promotion of TRUMP Token On July 11, 2025, Tron founder Sun Yuchen stated that his $100 million Trump token purchase marks a strategic alignment with the current government, and he plans to make the Trump token very popular in Asia and other parts of the world.
#6 Ant International Supports USDC On July 11, 2025, Ant Group announced a partnership with Circle Financial to introduce USDC to its blockchain platform, subject to regulatory approval of USDC in the United States.
#7 AAVE issues a buy signal On July 11, 2025, the price of AAVE broke through the cloud support, sending a buy signal on the weekly chart. Trading activity increased, and AAVE is expected to continue rising to the $375 to $455 range.
#8 Qubetics becomes the most promising cryptocurrency On July 11, 2025, Qubetics skyrocketed by 950% to a historical high of $4.20 within one hour of its launch. Its 30% annualized validator rewards and cross-chain capabilities make it one of the most promising cryptocurrencies.
#9 BTC Bull Price Prediction On July 11, 2025, BTC Bull has risen over 320% since the low point on July 8, reaching a new high of $0.0055. Analysts had predicted a potential return of 10 to 100 times.
#10 Cryptocurrency Price Trends Divergence On July 11, 2025, Ethereum, Bitcoin, and XRP displayed different price dynamics on the 1-second chart, reflecting another aspect of the current market sentiment.
#11 FUNToken Continuous Token Burn
On July 11, 2025, FUNToken completed the destruction of 25 million FUN on June 24, fully funded by platform revenue. Each destruction reflects the health of the ecosystem and user engagement.
#12 GMX Suspended Some Functions On July 9, 2025, GMX reported that the GLP pool of GMX V1 on Arrum was attacked, resulting in approximately $40 million in tokens being transferred. GMX has suspended certain functions on Arrum and Avalanche.
#13 Cryptocurrency Stocks Rise Before Market Open On July 10, 2025, Bitcoin remains near historical highs, cryptocurrency stocks in the US pre-market rise, SharpLink Gaming up over 7%, Holdings up over 5%.
#14 UK FTSE 100 Index Hits New High On July 10, 2025, the UK's FTSE 100 index reached a new high of 8965.47 points.
#15 UXLINK rises against the trend by 30% On July 11, 2025, UXLINK surged by 30% against the trend before Christmas, as the market cautiously speculated on the "Christmas rally," with the theme of meme surrounding Christmas heating up continuously.
5. Global Policies
The following is a summary of new political dynamics, economic policies, or regulations related to the cryptocurrency industry based on news from July 4 to July 11, 2025, along with an analysis of their impact on the industry and the market, and a final summary title.
The U.S. Treasury Department Officially Withdraws Controversial Cryptocurrency "Broker" Tax Rules
According to reports, the U.S. Treasury Department and the IRS officially withdrew the controversial "broker" tax rules for cryptocurrencies on July 10, marking the end of a nearly four-year regulatory dispute. The rules originally required non-custodial service providers, including decentralized exchanges, to collect and submit customer transaction information like traditional securities brokers, which sparked strong opposition from the industry.
Impact Analysis on Industry and Market: This measure will significantly alleviate the compliance pressure on DeFi protocols, particularly addressing the practical challenge of self-operating blockchain protocols in collecting user information. This is also seen as an important signal of marginal easing in the U.S. crypto regulatory environment, which may provide a more favorable development space for decentralized financial innovation.
The U.S. House of Representatives will hold "Crypto Week" to review multiple cryptocurrency bills
According to reports, the U.S. House of Representatives has declared the week of July 14 as Cryptocurrency Week, during which it will review the CLARITY Act, the GENIUS Act, and the Anti-CBDC Act.
Analysis of the Impact on the Industry and Market: This move indicates that the U.S. government is intensifying its regulatory efforts on cryptocurrencies, aiming to establish a clearer legal framework for the industry. If these bills are passed, they will provide greater certainty and compliance guidance for the development of the cryptocurrency industry.
Trump Says Cryptocurrency "Soars to the Ceiling"
U.S. President Trump stated on social media that cryptocurrency "has skyrocketed" and called for the Federal Reserve to quickly lower interest rates.
Analysis of Impact on Industry and Market: The Trump administration has always been viewed as having a friendly attitude towards cryptocurrency. This statement further enhances the market's expectations for a favorable U.S. policy environment, which may stimulate investor demand for cryptocurrencies.
Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission Holds Central Group Study Meeting on the Development Trends and Response Strategies of Cryptocurrencies and Stablecoins
According to reports, on July 10, the Party Committee of the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a study meeting of the central group, focusing on the development trends and response strategies of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins.
Analysis of the Impact on the Industry and Market: This indicates that the Chinese government is closely monitoring the development trends of cryptocurrency. As a financial center, Shanghai's policy direction may have a certain impact on the domestic cryptocurrency industry.
Summary: Policies and Regulations
Overall, in the past week, the U.S. government has taken some important measures regarding cryptocurrency regulation, including the repeal of controversial tax rules and the review of multiple cryptocurrency bills. At the same time, the Trump administration and the Shanghai municipal government have also shown concern for the trends in cryptocurrency development. These policy movements reflect a changing attitude towards cryptocurrency regulation among major global economies, which is conducive to creating a clearer and more favorable environment for industry development.
6. Investment Analysis
6.1. Investment Recommendation
Market trends indicate that Bitcoin has once again broken its historical high, leading the cryptocurrency market to continue heating up. Hot news includes Ripple expected to capture 14% of the global trading share, and Solana's market capitalization soaring again.
Start a new paragraph,
Disclaimer: The above suggestions are based solely on current market analysis and are not financial advice. Investment carries risks, please make cautious decisions.
6.2 Investment Strategy
Technical Analysis of Popular Tokens This Week
PENU and Dogecoin ( DOGE ) surged this week, leading the Meme coin market. PENU, as an emerging Meme coin, has high attention on social media and exhibits significant price volatility. DOGE, on the other hand, is an established Meme coin, with its price movements more influenced by speculative sentiment. Bitcoin has broken historical highs, reflecting the market's long-term bullish expectations for cryptocurrencies. Overall, this week's popular coins show characteristics of high risk and high reward.
Trading Bot Strategy Analysis
The performance of robots varies depending on the strategy. Grid trading and options selling strategies yield higher returns but also come with greater volatility; moving average strategies and market-making strategies exhibit lower volatility and relatively stable returns. Overall, this week the quantitative strategies have shown a coexistence of high risk-high return and low risk-low return patterns.
Summary
6.3. Financial Management Products
Yubi Bao
Yu Bi Bao helps match users with idle assets and those in need of loans. After users subscribe to Yu Bi Bao, the system will determine whether the loan is successful and the interest rate for that hour based on the user's set lending rate and actual loan demand at each full hour. If the loan is successful, users can earn interest for that hour.
The total amount of USDT in Yubi Treasure is 350,193,997.59, with an estimated annual return rate of 16.65% + 8.87%.
Wealth Management Treasure
The Wealth Management Treasure is a one-stop comprehensive financial service center established by Gate, including current, fixed, and all other financial schemes, providing users with hundreds of digital currency financial products in various categories.
Structured Finance
Gate structured finance is a new type of financial product based on a combination of fixed income and financial derivatives such as options. Generally, the settlement yield level is determined by comparing the price performance of the underlying asset during the investment period with a specified linked price, which can be divided into two types: capital-protected and aggressive.
4. Market Interest Rate
Note:
Disclaimer: The above data is provided by a third party and may be subject to delays. It is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Please verify the accuracy of the data and make cautious decisions before making any investment decisions.
6.4. Bollinger Band Trading Strategy Backtesting
Bollinger Bands are a commonly used technical indicator that identifies potential overbought or oversold conditions through the standard deviation of prices. This backtest uses the following trading strategy:
Based on this trading strategy, the backtesting results of ETH's historical data from 2023 to 2025 are as follows:
Data Analysis:
Advantages:
Disadvantages:
Overall, the Bollinger Bands trading strategy has achieved a good positive return, but the risk is also relatively high. In practical operation, it is necessary to combine other analytical tools and trading experience to reduce risk and increase yield.